Nice article. Looking at the long-term debt cycle, I agree we’ll see a crash in equities much sooner than the 2030s. And I agree that inflation won’t be transitory. Now that you’re within a few years of your financial independence date, your risk has changed.

When people start investing in their 20’s and 30’s, their risk is not having enough money to reach financial independence. That game is all about increasing monthly contributions and investing to maximize yield over an extended timeframe. A 20% or more market decline is no big deal since their monthly contributions go farther and acquire assets on sale.

After their nest egg grows to the point where financial independence is only a few years away, the risk changes. Monthly contributions are no longer the primary factor for financial independence. Getting decent yields on the nest egg while hedging the possibility of a substantial portfolio decline is the name of the game. Rather than maximizing yield, the game becomes one of balancing yield versus minimizing the impact of a drawdown.

You’re in the “Fragile Decade,” the five years before and after retirement. This is the time to manage Sequence-of-Returns Risk. I’ve written an article on the topic. https://medium.com/the-investors-handbook/managing-sequence-of-returns-risk-during-the-fragile-decade-4675598f5c50